探討設置太陽能裝置容量的最適選址

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题名:	探討設置太陽能裝置容量的最適選址
作者:	黃振瑋;Huang, Chen-Wei
贡献者:	產業經濟研究所
关键词:	太陽能發電;最適選址;日照輻射量
日期:	2023-07-17
上传时间:	2024-09-19 16:17:38 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	能源議題近年來受到國際間的高度重視，隨著全球人口不斷增加，生活水準不斷上升，使能源的需求不斷增長，另外，當大量生產和消耗能源時，也造成溫室氣體排放及空氣汙染大幅增加，氣候變遷漸漸趨向極端，因此發展清潔且可再生能源是應對氣候變遷及空氣汙染的重要解決方法。本篇研究的再生能源為太陽能發電，太陽能發電能源的主要來源為日照，除了在廣大土地上設置太陽能板外，也可以安裝在房屋屋頂或與建築融合的建材當中，許多國家早已致力於太陽能發電的發展。本篇研究目的為考量氣候、空汙及社會因素後探討設置太陽能裝置容量的最適選址。首先，透過Probit估計模型觀察年總日照輻射量對於是否設置太陽能裝置容量與各項因素影響，接著透過OLS估計模型觀察太陽能裝置容量大小與年總日照輻射量之間受各項因素的影響，並使用Heckman兩步驟估計法觀察是否存在樣本選擇問題，最後透過固定效果模型進行分析及比較。本研究之資料為2020年及2021年各鄉鎮取得發電業籌設太陽光電案中的太陽能裝置容量，範圍為除了基隆及台北之外的西部地區。觀察的各項變數分別為氣溫、降雨量、濕度、日照輻射量、PM10及各鄉鎮人口數。實證結果發現，日照輻射量與是否設置太陽能裝置容量呈現正向顯著關係，並與太陽能裝置容量大小呈現正向顯著關係，說明日照輻射量是一項決定探討太陽能發電系統最適選址的重要因素。最高氣溫與是否設置太陽能裝置容量呈現負向顯著關係，並與太陽能裝置容量大小呈現負向顯著關係，當最高氣溫過高時，該地區太陽能發電發展能力及機會將會降低。年總降雨量與太陽能裝置容量大小呈現負向顯著關係。根據本研究發現，台南市、嘉義縣及屏東縣較適合設置太陽能裝置容量，發展太陽能發電產業。 ;In recent years, the issue of energy has received significant international attention. With the continuous increase in the global population and rising living standards, the demand for energy has been constantly growing. Additionally, greenhouse gases and air pollution cause extreme climate change. Therefore, the development of clean and renewable energy is an important solution to solve climate change and air pollution. This research focuses on solar power. Observe the influence of the annual total solar radiation on the capacity of solar installations and various factors through the Probit model, and then observe the influence of various factors on the capacity of solar installations and the annual total solar radiation through the OLS method, using Heckman two-step method is used to observe whether there is a sample selection problem, and finally the fixed effect model is used for analysis. The data used in this research consists of the solar power installation capacities of various towns, excluding Keelung and Taipei, for the years 2020 and 2021. The variables observed include temperature, rainfall, humidity, solar radiation, PM10, and population size of each township. The empirical results indicate that solar radiation shows a positive and significant relationship with the decision to install solar power installations and the size of the installations. This suggests that solar radiation is an important factor in determining the optimal siting of solar power systems. The highest temperature shows a negative and significant relationship with the decision to install solar power installations and the size of the installations. The annual rainfall also shows a negative and significant relationship with the size of solar power installations. According to the research, Tainan, Chiayi, and Pingtung are more suitable for setting up solar installation capacity and developing the solar power generation industry.
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