台灣人口結構變動對區域房價之影響

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Title:	台灣人口結構變動對區域房價之影響
Authors:	黃芷鈴;Huang, Jr-Ling
Contributors:	產業經濟研究所
Keywords:	人口結構;房屋市場;縱橫資料
Date:	2023-02-02
Issue Date:	2024-09-19 16:16:01 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	我們身處在人口結構變遷的洪流中，隨著高齡化與少子化，可以看到國外對於人口結構對經濟社會影響的文獻越來越多，其中不乏對於房屋市場影響的探討;在台灣，人口結構及人口移動與房價之間關係的探究還在起步階段，故希望可以在此透過本研究觀察人口結構與影響人口移動的相關因素對於台灣不同地區房屋市場的影響。本文的實證研究蒐集自 2012 年至 2022 年間各縣市房價單價和人口相關變數進行探討。透過將台灣西部分為三個地區兩兩觀察人口因素與房市的關係。被解釋變數為北部與南部地區房價差值、北部與中部房價差值及中部與南部房價差值;被解釋變數包含氣溫、人口變數。本研究採用固定效果模型進行分析，實證結果顯示台灣各地區的氣候差異與各地區房價的差距有關，當南部與北部的氣溫差距越高時，南北部的房價差距會越大。人口結構的差異在三個地區差異中對中南部的房價差異影響最小。整體而言，淨遷徙率的差異在三個地區差異中都會縮小房價差異，顯示北部的人口移動趨緩及向南的人口移動趨勢也將導致南北房價的差距縮小，然而在三個地區的非都會區房價差異則無法看到類似的結果。同時，北部及南部的房價差異表現及都會區與非都會區的房價表現上都有顯著的不同，顯示台灣西部地區的人口結構明顯在都會區與非都會區有明顯的差異。;We are in the torrent of population structure changes. With the aging and declining birthrate, we can see that there are more and more foreign discussions on the effect of the changing housing market population structure. However, research on the relationship between population structure and housing prices in Taiwan is still in its infancy. Through this study, we can observe the impact of population structure and related factors affecting population movement on the housing market in different regions of Taiwan. The empirical research in this paper is collected from 2012 to 2022 to discuss the unit price of house prices and population-related variables in each county and city. By dividing western Taiwan into three regions, we observe the relationship between population factors and the housing market. The explained variables are the house price difference between the northern and southern regions, the house price difference between the north and central regions, and the house price difference between the central and southern regions; the explained variables include temperature and population variables. This study uses a fixed-effects model for analysis, and the empirical results show that the differences in climate in various regions of Taiwan are related to the differences in housing prices. There are significant differences in the performance of housing prices in the north and south, which shows that the population structure of western Taiwan has significant differences between metropolitan areas and non-metropolitan areas.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Industrial Economics] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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