基本工資調整對薪資之影響分析：以台灣製造業及服務業為例

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Title:	基本工資調整對薪資之影響分析：以台灣製造業及服務業為例
Authors:	謝念億;Hsieh,Nien-Yi
Contributors:	產業經濟研究所
Keywords:	基本工資;薪資;時間序列分析;minimum wage;wage;time series analysis
Date:	2015-06-16
Issue Date:	2015-07-30 21:55:50 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	台灣現處於「悶經濟」的狀態，「萬物皆漲，只有薪水不漲」。自2010年起，政府逐年調漲基本工資，希望藉由基本工資的調漲來帶動薪資成長，是以基本工資的調漲，是否能帶動薪資成長？基本工資的調整對薪資影響幅度又是如何，以上問題給予從事本研究之研究動機，也是本研究之研究目的。研究使用時間序列迴歸分析，探討基本工資調整對全國、工業與服務業薪資之影響，變數資料源自AREMOS台灣經濟統計資料庫與行政院主計處的人力資源運用調查，資料期間為1994年至2013年，資料型式為年資料及季資料。研究結果顯示，在短期下，基本工資的調升對薪資有負面衝擊，但經一段時間作用後，可能有助長薪資之勢；但以長期而言，基本工資的調整對全國薪資與服務業薪資有顯著的負向影響，而基本工資的調整對工業薪資有顯著的正向影響。在影響幅度方面，基本工資影響全國薪資的幅度為－0.034%至－0.093%、影響工業薪資幅度為0.193%至0.832%、影響服務業薪資幅度約為－0.052%。當基本工資水準調升時，對於邊際勞工及中小型企業受雇者衝擊較大，是以台灣的產業結構以中小企業為主，而基本工資的提高，可能使企業減少雇用月薪者，轉而多雇用非典型就業者（尤其時薪工作者），使得在基本工資提高之狀況下，整體薪資是不升反降。有別於先前文獻實證結果發現基本工資之調升能助長薪資，本研究發現調升基本工資會壓縮整體薪資水準，表示調升基本工資可能對整體經濟社會產生不利的影響，因此政府當局在制定基本工資政策時，必須審慎評估其可能帶來之長期影響。 ;Taiwan is in a state of "Prices have gone through the roof, excluding the wages." The government has been increasing the minimum wage since 2010. They hope that increasing in the minimum wage will lead to increase in the wages. Can the minimum wage policy raise the wages? What is the amount of variation in the adjustment of the minimum wage to wages? The above problems give me the motivation to do the research, and are the purpose of this thesis. In this research, we use time series analysis to analyze the minimum wage effect on the wages in the economy, as well as in the industrial and service sectors. The data is from AREMOS Taiwan Economic Statistical Databank and Manpower Survey from Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, R.O.C. The period is from 1994 to 2013. We use both annual data and quarterly data. The empirical results show that the increase in the minimum wage lead to decrease in the wages in the short run, but it may have a positive effect on the wages after a while. In the long term, the increase in the minimum wage has a negative effect on the wages in the economy and the service sectors. However, it has a positive effect on the wages in the industrial sectors. The magnitude of the impact of the minimum wage to wages in the economy is from -0.034% to -0.093%, in the industrial sectors is from 0.193% to 0.832%, and in the service sectors is about -0.052%. The minimum wages hike has a greater impact on the marginal labors and employee of Small & Medium Firm Enterprises (SME). The industrial structure is mainly SME in Taiwan. The enterprise may hire more atypical workers when the minimum wage is increasing. These are reason why the increase in the minimum wage has a negative effect on the wages. The empirical results are different from previous researches. We find that the increase in minimum wages will compress the wages in the economy. It means that increasing the minimum wage will have a negative impact on the society; hence the government must carefully evaluate when making the minimum wage policy.
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