| 摘要: | 桃園縣新成屋市場產業分析
中文摘要
由於政府在桃園地區公共政策不斷推行，如建設五楊高架快速道路、桃園航空城及機場捷運即將完工情形，加上台北市及新北市房地產價格屢創新高下，負擔不起高房價之民眾便往鄰近縣市即桃園縣作購屋選擇，如此帶動桃園房地產市場榮景。
本研究在SCP架構下與個案方式探討桃園地區新成屋市場產業分析，另藉由政府政策、成屋供給要件及消費者需求動機做進一步探討桃園新成屋市場未來發展趨勢。
研究結果顯示，桃園地區重劃區土地將大量釋出，建商趁這波房市高點紛紛購入土地興建住宅大樓，投資客而言，近年來房貸利率偏低情形下，房屋投資客持有成本低，加上房地產稅基長期偏離實價或市價，使得房地產炒作成本過低，造成避稅的溫床，此為房價墊高之重要原因，另外地主惜售心態趨使下，土地日益減少，造成土地成本飆高，房價隨之飆漲，建商紛紛搶建，其投機需求亦無減少情形下，房價創桃園地區之高點。
資金面支撐下，房價仍將維持高檔，不過近年來台灣經濟成長趨於停滯，薪資水準不若以往，而都會區房價與外圍地區房市結構漸行漸遠，價差亦逐漸拉大，如果趨勢不變，而更多自住型消費者南下桃園，撐起桃園地區房價，如台灣產業無法升級，經濟陷入仍低循環期，民眾購買力無法增加，人口仍呈現倒金字塔發展，未來是否會成為房市泡沫，這才是台灣房市最大隱憂。
Analysis of New and Existing Home Market and Industry in Taoyuan County
Abstract
As the Government continues to set forth new public construction projects related to and benefiting the Taoyuan area, such as the Wu-Yang elevated highways, Taoyuan Aviation City and the Airport MRT which is near completion, and the Taipei City and New Taipei City real estate prices have over and over reached new heights, the city dwellers who cannot afford the urban habitation are looking to the neighboring Taoyuan County for their housing choice. This bigger environment as a whole has led to the booming of the Taoyuan real estate market.
The research, with a SCP framework, conducted case studies on the new and existing home market and industry in Taoyuan area. Through the analysis of the public policies, the supply elements of new and existing homes and the motivation of consumers’ demand, the future trend of the new and existing home market in Taoyuan was further discussed.
The research results show that in this massive land release resulted from the land redistricting in the Taoyuan area, construction builders have ridden this wave of housing market highs to procure lands for residential building. Meanwhile, real estate investors are also coveting for the low mortgage rate to significantly reduce their holding cost, and the property tax which has long been much lower than what it should have been for the real housing market prices has made the real estate cost extremely low, offering a hotbed of tax avoidance. This is the cause as a whole leading to the skyrocketed housing prices. The landlords are also taking this ride of housing craze to sell their lands, and thus the lands are dwindling and becoming more and more expensive. As the builders and buyers are rushing into the housing frenzy, the speculative venture seems never ending and so the housing prices remain record high.
With the support of the financial leverage, the housing prices are expected to remain high for some time. However, the economic growth of Taiwan has been slowing down, and the average salary has come to a stall. Furthermore, the urban housing cost is way beyond the suburban housing structure, driving city dwellers to move south to the Taoyuan area and to raise its housing prices. If Taiwan cannot upgrade its industries to pull itself up from the low economic cycles, people’s purchasing power won’t be increased and the population growth will be like an inverted pyramid trend
then, we’d probably need to worry about a housing bubble. This is what the Taiwan housing market should really be concerned. |
